Basic belief/rule #1: Evan cannot lie to @nxthompson, so anything he emails/DMs to Nick has to be true (and Nick cannot lie to us).

   Thus, via @nxthompson: No one else, besides Evan, is checking his email.  Therefore, all info    
   sent from Evan to Nick via email is true, including IP info.

Basic belief/rule #2: If Evan flies under his own name, he is required to use FF# and inform Nick about flight info.

   Thus, so far we have no evidence that he's flown anywhere under his own name.

Fact: Evan paid $250 for motorcycle training school in June. Speculation: he acquired a motorcycle license, knowing he would be selling his car. Further support: CC charge to California DMV for $28, which matches the cost of a motorcycle license learner's permit.

Fact: Evan researched 'how to vanish,' bought Ahearn book on July 15.

Fact: Evan wrote check to himself on Aug 10 for $3826 for "Aug/Sept loan." Speculation: funds for his vanishing act. FunFact: 3826 spells Evan on a phone.

Fact: Evan went into hiding on or about Aug 13th.

Fact: Evan's FastTrak was used to cross Carquinez Bridge heading east on Aug 13th. Circumstantial evidence this was Evan (e.g., his car was sold in Vegas the next day).

Fact: Evan's CC was used to at Best Buy in San Francisco on Aug 13. Speculation: purchase was pre-paid phone.

Fact: Evan is using TOR to disguise his online habits.

Fact: Evan's car was sold to CarMax in Las Vegas on Aug 14th.

Fact: Someone posted pictures of Evan's cat to flickr on Aug 19th. At least one picture was taking in San Francisco, possibly on Aug 15th. However, no direct evidence pictures posted by Evan or even certain when pictures were taken.

Fact: $3K from car sale was deposited via ATM in Santa Monica on Aug 21. Speculation: If deposited after hours on the 20th, it would show as a Aug 21 deposit.

Fact: Evan's CC was used at Viceroy Hotel in Santa Monica on Aug 24. Speculation: This was a delayed charge that occurred earlier in the weekend.

Fact: Evan bought Tracy Kidder book on Aug 26/27. (via msg to @nxthompson)

Pages in category "Facts vs. Speculation"

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